Entry tags:
The ratings dance
Interesting article found via
umadoshi: Why Netflix Cancels Shows After A Couple Of Seasons.
This is a little bit heartbreaking, especially for that part of me that is really not over losing the Marvel TV universe, but it's also fascinating from a business standpoint. I'm not sure how much of this is certain and how much is merely speculation, but if they're right, it looks like the current evolution of Netflix's business model makes it very unlikely for Netflix to continue to renew their original shows beyond their second or at absolute maximum their third season, unless they're not just a runaway hit, but a particular kind of runaway hit (the kind that brings in award nominations).
It's comforting in a way, because it makes the cancellation of my particular shows feel a little less arbitrary and unfair, a little more like the grit-your-teeth-and-bear-it inevitability of quirky or unusual shows falling victim to TV's endless money-focused ratings dance. It looks like Netflix's brief era of being more creatively driven has started to roll into their own version of the ratings dance, with perhaps even less likelihood of shows surviving beyond their first couple of seasons (or, at least, a different kind of odds).
The article also talks about why it's now much less likely to borderline impossible for shows cancelled by one streaming service to jump to another ... but let's face it, the whole idea of cancelled shows being "saved" by cable or Netflix is pretty recent; that never used to be a thing.
So yeah, it's an interesting article, and it simultaneously salves some of my hurt feelings over certain recent show cancellations while also hurting in whole new ways. I also feel like this is useful information to know about Netflix original series going forward - a second season is likely if the show is a success, but beyond that, things get extremely dicey, and the odds of Netflix shows going on for four or more seasons are really low these days, no matter how well they're doing.
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This is a little bit heartbreaking, especially for that part of me that is really not over losing the Marvel TV universe, but it's also fascinating from a business standpoint. I'm not sure how much of this is certain and how much is merely speculation, but if they're right, it looks like the current evolution of Netflix's business model makes it very unlikely for Netflix to continue to renew their original shows beyond their second or at absolute maximum their third season, unless they're not just a runaway hit, but a particular kind of runaway hit (the kind that brings in award nominations).
It's comforting in a way, because it makes the cancellation of my particular shows feel a little less arbitrary and unfair, a little more like the grit-your-teeth-and-bear-it inevitability of quirky or unusual shows falling victim to TV's endless money-focused ratings dance. It looks like Netflix's brief era of being more creatively driven has started to roll into their own version of the ratings dance, with perhaps even less likelihood of shows surviving beyond their first couple of seasons (or, at least, a different kind of odds).
The article also talks about why it's now much less likely to borderline impossible for shows cancelled by one streaming service to jump to another ... but let's face it, the whole idea of cancelled shows being "saved" by cable or Netflix is pretty recent; that never used to be a thing.
So yeah, it's an interesting article, and it simultaneously salves some of my hurt feelings over certain recent show cancellations while also hurting in whole new ways. I also feel like this is useful information to know about Netflix original series going forward - a second season is likely if the show is a success, but beyond that, things get extremely dicey, and the odds of Netflix shows going on for four or more seasons are really low these days, no matter how well they're doing.
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I read that! It was a business model I did not approve of.
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Seriously. Even a little transparency about viewer numbers would make it feel less like a shell game.
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... btw, that story request you made, the drug withdrawals one? I've got about 5K of it. :D I thought I'd be done by now, but it just ... keeps going ...
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I hope you're all right with me not feeling guilty.
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Although ... the current state of the story is that it's mildly stalled out because while I was sailing happily through writing the first part of it, I've hit a point where I'm not quite sure how much to skip over and ... where to focus, I guess, for the remainder of the story. It's a premise where there's a lot of rather self-similar recovery-type stuff; kind of like writing someone recovering from the flu, say, where the focus of the story determines what gets left in or out.
So if there was any specific thing that you were hoping for from it, in terms of emotional arcs and the like, feel free to say so! I understand if you'd rather not be involved with the plotting process of a gift story on that level, but on the other hand, if you do have something in particular that you'd like to see, it would actually be quite helpful to know about.
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Oh, good.
I understand if you'd rather not be involved with the plotting process of a gift story on that level, but on the other hand, if you do have something in particular that you'd like to see, it would actually be quite helpful to know about.
Oh, jeez. I am not sure I had a particular direction in mind. What are your choices of focus, if that's an answerable question?
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It's basically a matter of whether I want to focus on Danny's detox and recovery in detail (that is, focus more centrally on what Danny's going through), or essentially gloss over the details, do a lot of time-skipping, and focus more on Ward's reactions to it, buried trauma that he's pushing through for Danny's sake, and the like.
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I don't feel put-upon. I just hadn't expected to have any input.
It's basically a matter of whether I want to focus on Danny's detox and recovery in detail (that is, focus more centrally on what Danny's going through), or essentially gloss over the details, do a lot of time-skipping, and focus more on Ward's reactions to it, buried trauma that he's pushing through for Danny's sake, and the like.
If both are equally interesting for you to write, I am slightly inclined toward Option B. [edit] Says the person who rewatched the last two episodes of Season 1 of Iron Fist tonight.
I am not averse to Danny-POV, to be clear. I am interested in how Ward handles it.
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Says the person who rewatched the last two episodes of Season 1 of Iron Fist tonight.
Ha! I may have to do that. Necessary research, of course!
Re: your note about it feeling like one block of story - it really does. When I watched it the first time, those two episodes were where things really kicked off for me; I was certainly enjoying it up to that point, and enjoying parts quite a lot, but it was also a show I was (mostly) watching in the background while doing art, and tuning out on parts of the storyline that weren't as interesting to me. That two-episode block, with all its emotional turning points, was where the show really caught hold of me and wouldn't let go.
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I'm glad! And I look forward.
That two-episode block, with all its emotional turning points, was where the show really caught hold of me and wouldn't let go.
I think it may be the point where the show figured out (or at least made visible) the kind of story it was. For Colleen, Ward, and Danny, it's the same question: are you going to keep cycling through the damage of the past in a decaying loop or are you going to grab on to the one thing in your life and leap into the unknown? It's a different answer and a different point for all of them, but they all have to face it. And they all make the leap. Some more wobbly than others, and like all decisions of this kind it will have to be made and remade and remade again, but at the end of the season, even with the weirdo cliffhanger of the closed gate to K'un-Lun that was never resolved, they're all on the other side, looking forward.
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https://archiveofourown.org/works/18424005
I didn't explicitly gift it to you because I didn't want to suggest an implied obligation to review (I usually don't, with this kind of promptfic, for that exact reason). But I know you've had a rough time lately and I hope this will make things a little better. Read and enjoy. <3
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It's an excellent night! Thank you!
(I do not mind it being gifted, if that is a thing you do; I will not feel guilt-tripped. I might just at this stage of exhaustion leave comments like "AAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!")
But I know you've had a rough time lately and I hope this will make things a little better. Read and enjoy.
*hugs*
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Oh, by the way, inspired by this comment thread, I went ahead and rewatched the last 2 episodes of S1 myself a couple of nights ago - I had meant to come back and reply to this anyway. In addition to the things you pointed out above, about the show (as well as the characters) essentially choosing a direction here, I also really appreciate how much thematic weight this show gives to characters explicitly defeating and overcoming the characters who belittle and abuse them. It's most obvious with Ward shooting Harold at the end, but I had forgotten how much of a thematic motif that also was with Colleen and Bakuto, and (to a lesser degree) Danny and Davos. And okay, sure, it's a power fantasy of sorts, but it's one that really resonates with me.
I particularly appreciate that it's developed in a way that makes it explicitly not a revenge fantasy; it's about overcoming your past and your abuse, not about hurting others. Ward's first attempt to kill Harold is a purely reactive act born of fury and resentment and pain, but in the end, when it finally "takes", he's not trying to hurt Harold or even to protect himself, but to save Danny. And Colleen is only trying to end her fight with Bakuto, not to end him; she specifically makes the choice not to be like him (even if that choice is taken out of her hands in a bit of narrative convenience).
I just really like this show's moral and thematic underpinnings, even if some of the narrative choices along the way are kind of odd.
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Hee. Already on it!
It's most obvious with Ward shooting Harold at the end, but I had forgotten how much of a thematic motif that also was with Colleen and Bakuto, and (to a lesser degree) Danny and Davos.
Yes! I agree very much that the point is growth, not revenge, and I love the two different killings of Harold Meachum for exactly that reason. Just the clarity with which he shoots Harold shows how much Ward has changed as a person since the midpoint of the season. It's protective and it's also unhesitating and it's a break with the previous pattern of his life, whereas the stabbing just felt like part of it. Still in the same loop. That the murder didn't even last was just insult to injury.
Davos' own history of parental abuse made me wonder what the show would have done with him in a third season: if he would have continued to be the negative exemplar to Ward/Colleen or if he could have managed to pull himself into some kind of antihero, if never exactly an ally. He wasn't dead, and he was important to Danny, which meant the possibility of rapprochement was on the table, even if I feel it might also have been narratively useful for Danny not to reconnect successfully with someone from his emotionally complicated family past. Plus I just like Sacha Dhawan, so in the timeline where Netflix didn't cancel all its shows for opaque reasons of digital planned obsolescence I would have liked to see him again.
I really enjoyed how many different ways this show had to reflect its characters off one another while still maintaining them as distinct and idiosyncratic people. It made their relationships feel thematically rich as well as fun to watch.
I just really like this show's moral and thematic underpinnings, even if some of the narrative choices along the way are kind of odd.
Agreed.
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But in the scene on the roof, he is in control, maybe for the first time ever - he's mastered himself, he's on top of the situation (finally), and he's found something other than himself that's worth fighting for.
I really enjoyed how many different ways this show had to reflect its characters off one another while still maintaining them as distinct and idiosyncratic people. It made their relationships feel thematically rich as well as fun to watch.
Yes, same! I too wonder what they would have done with Davos if they'd had a third season to explore him further. I agree about Sacha Dhawan being a pleasure to watch. I'd have loved to see him finding his way toward his own form of self-determination away from the toxic fallout of his family and society, whatever shape that ended up taking.
And Joy, too. One thing I really love about Joy in season 2 is that she ends up having her own epiphany and seeking redemption in her own way, but she does it without being nice, or kind, or conciliatory, or any of the things women are supposed to be. She's still a total asshole, interpersonally. But she's trying to do the right thing and fix the things she broke. Like all of them, she's still feeling her way toward who she wants to be.
I love how the show is, at heart, about a bunch of broken children trying to learn how to be adults - in different ways, and some with more success at it than others. We get a pretty good idea of where Danny, Colleen, and Ward are headed by the end (future seasons would likely not have changed that too much, though I would still have loved to see them) but Joy and Davos remain a question mark.
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It's definitely going to lead to a more self-contained storytelling model, I think.
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I'm also reminded of a bit of script humour somewhere on tumblr that contrasted US TV networks with British ones, and the punchline was the BBC going "tenth... season?" Because super long runs with 20+ episodes per season and 4+ seasons being the goal is... not what the BBC does. (And of course I am super generalising here.)
Granted, the BBC has less stupid amounts of money to base with, but it's an expectation from US shows that there will always be LOTS and... I think that's been fed by studios going "okay this is making money, let's see how long we can make it last", which is a fair business decision, but also tends to end with shows fizzling out, either because they were dragged out long past the natural end of their stories (and fans end up hating a lot of it) or because they weren't prepared to be suddenly cancelld (and fans hate that too). Whereas BBC shows (generally) don't plan to go on forever, so they are much more cohesive with a defined beginning and end. When the seasons are shorter it helps keep storytelling tight too.
Which isn't to say I don't love a lot of American-style long-form shows, or that I don't hate the hugely long hiatuses between seasons of BBC shows, but I feel like Netflix taking the slightly more BBC-ish approach isn't a bad thing for the stories - as long as they expect it and write themselves accordingly. Which they won't because they hope to last forever.
But like you say, if we as watchers don't expect super long 4+ season runs, then we're less likely to be personally wounded when a show is cancelled. It'll be the norm again.
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You just articulated my issues with American tv in a nutshell.
(I kind of wish I actually liked more of what the BBC puts out for exactly this reason, but so much of it just doesn't quite land for me)
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+1. My introductory model for long-form serial storytelling was in many ways (mostly by virtue of being the first show I cared about enough to follow on my own) Babylon 5. I don't need a show to go on forever. I do need it to end when the story says so.
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I can think of a number where the creators were clearly hedging their bets like crazy, and having secured a single season of X number of episodes aimed very emphatically to tell A Story in that number of episodes in case they were never renewed, and a lot of cases where people got abruptly cancelled, but in US/Canadian TV I can't think of a lot where they actually got to negotiate from the outset "we need a couple of seasons worth."
I mean when I say "I'm torn", I mean that quite personally - a lot of this is inevitably subjective. I'm not generally a fan of endless murder[monster/case/scenario/whatever-of-the-week stuff, mostly because they tend to end up with failure conditions that make me hate the characters that used to be my faves because they've turned into jerks, tbh, or because what drew me to the show to start with has Died Horribly, or both (Criminal Minds I'm looking at you). There are exceptions (Midsommer Murders comes to mind), but they're few and far between for fiction.
So I personally am torn: there's a failure mode to the BBC and apparently now Netflix model, for sure, but there's also a hyper-common failure-mode to the syndication-courting model, especially for things that aren't comedies. *hands*
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Yeah, I totally agree. I just wish stories could be the length they need to be. Some stories work best as an 8-episode miniseries and drag on horribly at 20 episodes. Some need 100 episodes to fully develop their characters and theme.
Anime does a pretty good job with balancing long and short form storytelling in the same business model. It's true that some drag on forever and are clogged with filler arcs, but you also get ones that are self-contained with a beginning, middle and end at 50 or 100 episodes, along with some that are 6 episodes long and don't need to be any longer. So it's entirely possible to have both. I wish wee didn't have to get stuck on one model or the other.
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The other thing driving this is Netflix's shift from licensing other studios' content to creating its own. It's very unlikely Stranger Things will ever get the chop the way the Marvel shows did, because Netflix owns it. Of the long-running shows cited in the article, House of Cards wasn't cancelled until Spacey's crimes were publicly revealed (and he was fired days after the cancellation), and OITNB ended after seven seasons because a three-season renewal deal was up and the showrunner negotiated a new multi-year deal with Netflix for exclusive original shows (that happened right after Shonda Rhimes left ABC for an exclusive deal with Netflix reportedly worth $100M).
("I hear" was repeated 11 times in that article, once three times in one paragraph, and began way too many of them. That's usually a sign that the piece's editors seriously wanted to weasel the lead.)
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Partly because all of them are currently losing money hardcore on it, according to my friend who's job is literally making these kinds of deals.
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(You're right, I noticed those "I hear"s and it changed my entire read of the piece. Still, it's interesting.)
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On the one hand, it makes me sad, since it's happened to a bunch of shows that I really liked, and often seems to happen to shows that are a little oddball or outside the norm. But on the other, I also... can't entirely fault them for it, because I've also watched a lot of shows (*cough* Supernatural *cough*) drag on for seasons and seasons after they stopped being enjoyable.
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There also used to be a thing where shows would run to a certain episode number...I want to say 5 seasons....because that made it more attractive to syndication packaging.
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Marvel was cutting ties with Netflix anyway -- Infinity War is the last MCU movie Netflix is going to stream, and Marvel already is setting up two or three short-term Disney+ channel series based on popular (but not that highly paid!) movie characters. The author doesn't seem to know that the Marvel shows also all had the two-year blackout before they could be picked up by a different network, so no, there was no way any of them could be moved to Disney+ anyway. And "Netflix has built an adequate Marvel library, which will live on the service" -- nooo, all the future Marvel movies will be on Disney streaming, as well as the Disney movies. It's unclear how long Marvel movies before CM will be available on Netflix, but when the news came out about the move, most industry sites were still saying "But they still have all the Marvel shows." No, the writing was on the wall for them too, although there were creative difference type problems as well (the Jessica Jones showrunner was leaving after 3 seasons, the Luke Cage showrunner disagreed about the plot as well as Netflix wanting to trim the second season from 13 to 10 episodes, and Daredevil and Iron Fist both had different showrunners for every single season, which is a bad sign of creative instability).
tl;dr The cancellation of all the Marvel shows pretty much at once was driven by giant companies waged in profit wars, but not really in the way the author sets up.
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(As a fan of one of Netflix' first cancellations I kind of want to yell at everyone that the writing was on the wall. But. Still disappointing.)
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TOTAL AGREEMENT. And in the beginning, it even looked like that was what was going to happen, that Netflix was going to be a home for quirky, weird, diverse stuff that wouldn't have flown on the networks.
But yeah, noooope, it's just business as usual. I think at this point Netflix has started nailing down what they want their core audience to be -- it's basically Millennial/Gen X white male nerds, the kind of people who are the core audience for Umbrella Academy and Black Mirror and Stranger Things and that kind of thing. Obviously those shows have plenty of crossover audience as well (I like a lot of them too!), but I think that's the core demographic they've decided to court and rather than using that to subsidize a wider array of shows, they're just increasingly doubling down on that core demographic of 20/30/40-something male nerds who like a particular kind of twisty, edgy stuff.
It makes sense from a business standpoint but it's hella frustrating as a viewer.
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But white nerds, for sure.
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I still want Umbrella Academy renewed! Hey, this will only be the second season. Surely we can have one more!